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鸡蛋理论实践

每一次市场大升大跌都由三个阶段组成:

1、修正阶段。

2、调整或相随阶段。

3、过热阶段。

根据「科斯托兰尼鸡蛋」理论逆向操作,在过热的下跌阶段买进(即恐慌),之后在上涨的修正阶段继续加注买进,在上涨的相随阶段,只观察,被动随行情波动,到了上涨的过热阶段,投资者普遍亢奋时,退出市场。正如巴菲特的名句「在别人贪婪时恐惧,.在别人恐惧时贪婪。」。

鸡蛋理论将股市行情分为6个阶段。

上升段

Al=修正阶段(成交量小,股票持有人数量很少)。

A2=相随阶段(成交量和股票持有人数量增加)。

A3=过热阶段(成交量异常活跃,股票持有人数量大,在X点达到最高)。

下跌段

Bl=修正阶段(成交量小,股票持有人数量逐渐减少)。

B2=相随阶段(成交量增加,股票持有人数量继续减少)。

B3=过热阶段(成交量很大,股票持有人数量少,在Y点达到最低)。

科斯托兰尼将投资者分作几类;

(1) 股市的赌徒: 他们试图利用每一次微小的股市波动中获利。他期望在短期内能获得成功,当股市震动或下跌时,则迟早会破产。他的表现就像一位从一张桌子跑到另一张桌子的轮盘赌徒。

(2) 股市长綫投资者: 投资者与投机手相反,他想长期投资于股票的那部分资金,就一直投资于股票。

(3)投机者: 投机者处于赌徒与投资者之间,他只看趋势,关注不同的基本因素投资组合和策略,根据每天发生的事件来调整。科斯托兰尼自己说,他是一个纯粹的投机者。

鸡蛋理论中由于固执买家(大投资家与大投机家)在市场上很少见,大多数的人都是第二类的证券玩家/赌徒,所以当股票下跌时,大多数玩家都会卖出股票,只有少数的固执的买家会买进。

这时候成交量还很大,因为玩家还有股票可卖,所以当玩家都卖完出场后,成交量会开始萎缩,股票持有人数也在最低点,因为股票都在固执的买家手中。这时候就会量缩不跌,开始準备反转,只要市场一有好消息,由于固执买家不会低价卖出持股,所以玩家想要买进,价格就必然会上涨,一旦稍有上涨则会带动更多玩家型买家的加入,这时股价就会不断向上,成交量开始放大。

因为已有部分先进场的玩家会开始忙碌地每日卖出买进带领更多玩家追逐,终于到超过该股票的价值许多。玩家也都拥有许多股票的时候,这时成交量在最高点,持有股票总人数也在最高点。渐渐地由于没有新玩家可以加入,成交量开始萎缩,这时若聪明的大投机家带头卖出股票。则疯狂的玩家将追逐著任何可得的坏消息一个接一个开始卖出股票。由于还没跌到投机家与投资家要买的价位,而且每个玩家都疯狂想要逃出,这时股价的崩跌就不可避免了。股价崩跌时成交量也会开始增加,股票持有人数也会开始下降跌到玩家都被洗出场,跌到下一次的循环再次开始。

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